Investment Insights

LC Investment Playbook Monthly Update November


  • Inflation seems to be receding.
  • US rates are receding too.
  • US Dollar Index is receding too.
  • Another 100 bps hike priced by markets.
  • Freight prices are decreasing sharply.


  • Mega caps have underperformed YTD
  • The VIX has not even reached 40 this year.
  • Restoring of confidence remains key in China.
  • Central Bankers are deflating “the bubble” in an orderly manner.
  • Corporate earnings (worldwide) likely to be revised lower in 2023.
  • We expect a mild correction next year (-10% for developed markets) with several “Bear Market Rallies”.
  • High dispersion amongst economies ( EU, China, India) and sectors ( Cyclicals, etc.)

Fixed Income

  • Are stocks still a good yield enhancer.
  • US Treasury market pressure.
  • US Treasury 10-Year/3-Month spread inverted.
  • Central banks likely to remain “hawkish" in face of sticky inflation.
  • Rates/Yields likely to drift higher until Q2 2023.
  • Recession likely to happen in 2023 in the US/ Europe while China slows down quickly.
  • Duration to be extended by Q2 2023

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