Macro & Fixed Income
- US CPI - Shelter is the pain point.
- Fed funds rates expected at 4.8% by Q1 2023
- Fed near term forward spread
- Looking for safety - Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility.
- US bond futures - market positioning.
- Housing market sending recessionary signals.
- Central banks - Jumbo hike club.
- European Credit – GFC type scenario priced in
- A review of US and EU long term rates and credit.
Equities
- Equities moves explained by rates in 2022.
- Equities and high yield at record correlation.
- US equities: earnings will be decisive.
- US equities: peak earnings?
- S&P 500 strong support being tested.
- Looking for safety: put options purchased to protect downside. reached 12-year high.
- A review of the current environment and outlook of US, Europe, China and India equity markets.
Alternatives
- Cryptos are a leveraged play on equities.
- GBP crashes to all-time low.
- EUR in free fall.
- Europe energy - Russian gas contribution.
- European natural gas at record high.
- European electricity at record high.
- Our team's take on allocations to: Real Estate, EUR and GBP share classes for Alternatives, EM Currencies (INR, CNY, etc) and external managers for commodities.
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